Rotten Tomatoes isn’t the only numbers racket in town.
In “This Rotten Week,” on Cinemablend.com, Doug Norrie predicts a movie’s tomatometer five days before it opens. (That’s right, he’s predicting the percent the movie earns on Rotten Tomatoes.) Sunday is that day that he posts his predictions for a movie that will open the following Fri. (The column is sporadic.) He bases the percentage on ratings of similar movies in the past, based on common factors such as genre, opening date, director, actors and trailers.
His most recent prediction is for Krampus, which opened Friday. It’s about a Santa Claus who terrorizes an extended family on Christmas Eve. Adam Scott and Toni Collette play the parents of two kids.
Last Sunday, November 29th, Norrie predicted Krampus would get 39%.
The largest factor was the nebulous genre. Originally he thought it would be a horror comedy with a holiday touch; after watching the preview, he felt differently. It looked “too scary for kids” and “too corny for adults,” with no middle ground.
Then he analyzed the tomatometers of past movies with the same director:
Dougherty’s helmed Trick ‘r Treat (86%) and helped pen Superman Returns(76%) and X2: X-Men United (86%) so he has some wins under his belt. But I don’t think this one follows suit.
Finally, his gut reaction:
I have a feeling it rubs many folks the wrong way, and isn’t funny enough to fully distinguish itself as a horror comedy.
Immediately after the prediction, there is a three-question poll in which readers agrees, disagree, or remain neutral.
Drumroll please…yesterday (December 4th) the verdict came in: Krupus’ tomatometer is 63%
Whoops! He thought it would be a dud, but it’s actually a meh!
Here are two recent films that Norrie was a little closer on:
Creed (Rocky sequel): Predicted: 83% Actual: 93%
Victor Frankenstein (James MacAvoy and Daniel Radcliffe): Predicted: 37% Actual: 23%
Here’s a Q: do you think that these predictions are valuable? entertaining? A clever way to tell us about a movie opening in the coming week?
There’s a separate review of Krampus on Cinemablend by Brent McKnight, which is chock full of spoilers. I wouldn’t see this movie, nor care about the review–but it’s the principle that counts.