Overkill Goes to the Oscars

Last week, I stumbled upon the mother lode of OCD-dom. It’s called goldderby.com. It would be a great text for statistic courses.

WARNING: this site will fry your brain!

It is an obsessive compulsive paradise. It analyzes an infinite amount of data and information to predict the probability of each nominee’s winning an award. The odds are based on the success rate of past predictions of critics, site editors and savvy users. It is up to us to figure out which, if any, of those experts we will rely on–or we can take a look at the probabilities that are based on all of the predictions (cumulatively) to see how far the nominees are ahead of each other. The probabilities are also presented in in percentages and they list handicaps.

And they don’t even stop at predictions for the winning nominees. They also give you stats on predictions on who will be nominated in the first place.

Brad's new hair
The haircut looked better in the video.

Did you know that “award season” is much more and than the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild (SAG) and Academy awards? You’ll find that out when you peruse the list of movie awards–it’s endless.There are the Razzies (awards for the worst movies) and every guild you’ve never heard of. The Screen Actors Guild (SAGs) is the one we do know, but there is also the Producer’s Guild, Director’s Guild, Editor’s Guild.

I saw a short video of the highlights from the Producer’s Guild awards ceremony. Many celebs. were there–Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, Lupito Nyong’o. So there they all were, once again being interviewed on the red carpet. Bryan Cranston was there with Vince Gilligan and Brad Pitt were there, sporting an amazing new haircut. (He is a producer of 12 Years a Slave. What a kind-hearted righteous soul.) (Cranston is also a producer of Breaking Bad.)

How do people in the biz go from ceremony to ceremony without losing their marbles? And, pragmatically speaking, do they have to wear something different to each one? That is a lot of outfits. Are they all worn for free to advertise for the designers? Are they all made to order? Do they go to Kleinfeld’s in Queens for a discount? (Or is that only for wedding dresses) (or is it not around anymore).  It’s a miracle that the divas don’t mix up the wrong accessories with their gowns. I’m sure they all have personal assistants!

Segue back to the site:

I like this equation I found somewhere on it:

Golden Globe + SAG = Oscar

That means that if a person gets both a Golden Globe Award and a Screen Actor’s Guild award for the same category, then there is a strong chance that he/she will get it at the Oscars also. (Actually it’s an 88% chance.) You go, Messieurs McConaughey and Leto!

The amount of information is endless. There are articles, more videos, interviews and I’m sure I am leaving something out. I have to say, the interviews are amusing and somewhat fun to watch (Nothing is completely fun on this website because it makes me dizzy.) I saw some interviews that were not as  polished as usual, which I like a lot. The editors of the website do the interviews; some seem very young and there are awkward interviewers. I can relate to that one. I can be awkward when I interview folks for my writing.) And the stars rise to the occasion—literally. They all look like they just woke up, rolled out of bed, threw something on and started the Skype interview.

You can see what Julia Louis Dreyfus looks like when she does her own makeup (a person), or an awkward interview between a young website editor whose questions were not that clear to Josh Charles from The Good Wife. (He’s the love interest who is not Chris Noth.)

The website also claims to provide a social media venue for people to chat about the awards (whatever).

Lastly, I went to see how this website got started. Launched in 2000, it is the brainchild of Tom O’Neil, a critic and film expert who has written for tons of magazines and newspapers, from Entertainment Weekly to the The New York Times, and has appeared on the major networks. The site has gotten tons of accolades and O’Neil is often (I think) quoted in the media. Let me leave you with this testament to his talent:

O’Neil has not only predicted such major upsets as Susan Lucci’s ultimate Daytime Emmy victory in  1999, but he’s helped other stars to win them. Sarah Jessica Parker, for example, finally won a Primetime Emmy in 2004 her final year on “Sex and the City” thanks in large part to accepting O’Neil’s advice on which episode to submit to judges.

Maybe I’ve read Tim O’Neil’s articles or seen him on TV. But am I the only film buff who has never heard of this site?

It is an interesting place to visit, but I can’t imagine going there that often. It gives me brain freeze. Here are some screen shots of a teeny tiny portion of two pages on the site:

CaptureSAGCapturebafta awards


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